Eurovision 2013: Jury & Televote split revealed & examined!

So here’s the final piece of the puzzle. It might not be a completely illuminating piece – perhaps a grey bit that might be a bit of someone’s coat or a bird or something – but a crucial piece all the same.

Eurovision 2013 Malmö logo banner

Yes, Eurovision voting is a game of two halves. On one side is the voting public, much maligned for a poor taste for novelty acts, and allegedly involving themselves in bribery from other countries (yeah yeah). On the other are the mysterious juries, also much maligned but nonetheless regarded as the professional face of the scoring, made up – in theory – of singers, writers & composers.

This year we had a tweak to the rules that meant the juries ranked their songs from 1 to 26 rather than just listing their top 10, giving them the power to sink a song popular in the televote out of sheer SPITE! They’d do that you know, if you believe the loons. Of course the voting public had the capacity to do this already. Considering the juries are included for their invaluable insight, it did seem a bit odd that before 2013 we didn’t give a shit what they thought of their non-top-10 songs, even though their 11th place is surely going to be much more liked than their 26th. So I’m all for it. ANYWAY HERE ARE THE SCORES.

How it works

Rather than releasing points this year, the EBU are telling us the average rank by the juries and the public televotes, over all of the countries voting. Therefore a low average rank is what you’d want. An average rank of 1 means that every nation ranked it top.

But beware misinterpretation. If your average rank is 3, maybe you topped some national rankings (and conversely did a little worse than 3rd in others), but maybe you were just 3rd in everyone’s hearts. There’s no measure of variability here, and that’s important, especially if you’re Ireland. Ranking 11th in all the national votes = nul point. Squeezing a 10th place from half the countries and 12th in the rest = 13 points but an average 11th place rank.

Sure, it’s not the most transparent way to do it, but EBU have their reasons, dammit.

Semi-Final 1

Rank Country Avg. J rank Jury rank Avg. T rank Televote rank
1 Denmark 3.58 1 3.33 1
2 Russia 3.74 2 3.89 2
3 Ukraine 5.16 4 3.94 3
4 Moldova 4.32 3 8.28 11
5 Belgium 6.63 7 7.72 7
6 Netherlands 6.42 6 7.94 9
7 Belarus 8.26 9 7.83 8
8 Ireland 9.26 10 7.61 6
9 Lithuania 9.37 11 7.44 5
10 Estonia 7.47 8 10.06 13
11 Serbia 10.95 15 8.39 12
12 Montenegro 10.16 14 7.33 4
13 Croatia 9.95 13 8.00 10
14 Austria 6.32 5 12.33 15
15 Cyprus 9.47 12 12.00 14
16 Slovenia 11.47 16 13.17 16

emmelie de forest only teardrops denmark eurovisionThe interesting thing about all this how – broadly speaking – the juries and phone voters agreed for the most part. Both groups agreed on 7/10 of the qualifiers here. They agreed that Denmark was their favourite, and poor Slovenia was last in both ranks. Surprise DNQ Serbia weren’t that close in the end, with the disagreements between the two groups leaving Moje 3 outperforming both their rankings to come in 11th. It opens up the possibility that a song could be neither group’s choice for qualifying but still make it! Not this year though.

The juries wanted Austria through, ranking them 5th, but a 2nd-last position from the televote left poor Natalia in 14th and out of the running. Conversely, the Juries placed Lithuania just outside their magic 10 but a strong televote brought Andrius through to the final.

who see nina zizic igranka montenegro eurovisionThe public didn’t get their way either. Shockingly they placed Montenegro 4th, but the juries weren’t into the rapping spacemen and a 14th place from them saw Who See finish 12th and out of the contest. The public probably weren’t too cut up about Croatia missing out after coming 10th in the televote, but curiously they enjoyed the Klapa group more than the juries.

I suspected Estonia were only a narrow qualifier, and indeed the public didn’t really care for it, putting it 13th. But the juries put it 8th, compromising on a slim qualification in 10th place. Moldova were the big shock though, the juries loved it, placing it 3rd, but the giant dress wasn’t enough of a draw for the public, placing it in 11th. I think it must have come top on a number of national juries, as it defiantly made 4th overall.

Semi-Final 2

Rank Country Avg. J rank Jury rank Avg. T rank Televote rank
1 Azerbaijan 4.60 2 5.28 3
2 Greece 5.55 3 5.00 2
3 Norway 5.80 4 5.50 4
4 Malta 3.40 1 7.78 7
5 Romania 9.70 13 4.78 1
6 Iceland 7.40 8 8.61 9
7 Armenia 7.15 7 9.44 11
8 Hungary 8.55 11 8.39 8
9 Finland 7.05 6 8.89 10
10 Georgia 6.05 5 9.89 13
11 San Marino 8.40 10 9.47 12
12 Bulgaria 10.75 17 7.44 6
13 Switzerland 10.65 16 7.00 5
14 Israel 7.95 9 10.67 14
15 Albania 9.10 12 11.78 15
16 FYR Macedonia 9.75 14 12.22 16
17 Latvia 9.90 15 13.28 17

Gianluca Bezzina Tomorrow Malta EurovisionOnly 6 songs were in both groups’ top 10s in a more divisive semi-final. They couldn’t even decide their winner, with Malta running away with the jury vote, while the public put Romania and Greece ahead of overall semi-winner Azerbaijan.

The juries wanted Israel through, but a lukewarm reception from the public stopped Moran reaching the final. San Marino came 2nd in the OGAE International fan vote but where were her public votes? Neither group lost much sleep to see poor Valentina miss out, the juries placed her 10th and a 12th place from the public saw her finish 11th. Damn!

Hungary were saved by the public after the jury ranked ByeAlex 11th. But hardly a big reaction to a song that would ultimately finish 10th in the final.

romania2013The big story here has to be Romania. It won the televote but the juries hated it, ranking it 14th. Of course Cezar might have fluffed his jury performance the night before, but it seems this was the one where the public really bought into the spectacle and fun of it, as well as those hot opera vox. The televote may have started to dry up in the final, but the juries didn’t start liking it any more…

The public had a worse night, with 5th & 6th Switzerland & Bulgaria being hung out to dry by the juries as their least favourite pair. A bit of a surprise they were so divisive, and a shame for both countries.

While they ruined the juries’ nights by rescuing Romania & Hungary, they had to compromise by putting up with Armenia & Georgia. Georgia in particular I was surprised at. They were clearly going for the big win, with a definite whiff of Azerbaijan’s 2011 winner, as well as 2012’s winning writer behind the wheel. The juries ate it up, putting it 5th but the public didn’t rate it, dumping it in 13th.

Grand Final

Rank Country Avg. J rank Jury rank Avg. T rank Televote rank
1 Denmark 6.23 1 4.97 1
2 Azerbaijan 7.77 2 5.86 3
3 Ukraine 8.74 6 5.66 2
4 Norway 8.23 4 7.14 6
5 Russia 9.67 10 6.84 5
6 Greece 12.28 14 6.00 4
7 Italy 9.46 8 11.70 10
8 Malta 9.54 9 10.97 9
9 Netherlands 9.05 7 11.70 10
10 Hungary 15.59 21 8.19 8
11 Moldova 8.69 5 16.57 19
12 Belgium 9.92 11 16.03 17
13 Romania 17.82 24 7.49 7
14 Sweden 8.05 3 16.19 18
15 Georgia 12.10 13 17.08 23
16 Belarus 16.15 22 14.11 13
17 Iceland 13.44 17 13.05 12
18 Armenia 14.44 19 15.11 15
19 United Kingdom 12.46 15 17.03 22
20 Estonia 13.41 16 19.59 24
21 Germany 15.44 20 15.81 16
22 Lithuania 17.95 25 16.73 21
23 France 10.95 12 21.68 25
24 Finland 13.77 18 16.68 20
25 Spain 19.64 26 22.92 26
26 Ireland 16.21 23 14.62 14

Zlata Ognevich Gravity Eurovision UkraineLots of interesting goings-on here. I speculated that perhaps Denmark hadn’t been the definitive winner, but I was wrong, with Emmelie roundly defeating Azerbaijan on jury votes and Ukraine on televotes. I wonder if Ukraine would have run the victory even closer had the juries been keener, placing Zlata in 6th to leave Farid as the true challenger.

I had Norway down as a fan favourite, but the juries didn’t negotiate on its 4th place finish. Russia didn’t care for the cool reception from the juries, their 5th place from the televote stuck. Greece had an even tougher struggle against the juries, with their 4th place televote result being dragged down by a 14th place from the juries.

The juries had similar distaste for Hungary, placing ByeAlex in an eye-watering 21st place, but a decent showing from the televote kept him in the top 10. Curiously the ‘big names’ in the top 10, namely Dutch Anouk & Italian Marco didn’t do much for their televote – while they both finished comfortably in the public top 10, the juries were the ones boosting them further up. They did the same for the UK’s Bonnie Tyler, 15th with the juries but 22nd in the televote. Not so big in Europe then?

robin stjernberg you sweden eurovisionI’m amazed lower down at some of the songs the public killed off. Sweden were the biggest casualty, a 3rd rank with the juries utterly destroyed by an 18th place from the televote. Poor Robin… what happened there?! Similarly divisive was Moldova, which hadn’t won any fans since the first semi. Finishing 5th with the juries, Moldova had to settle for a second consecutive 11th place finish as the televote put Aliona in 19th.

Belgium I thought was a great crowd-pleaser, but he had the juries to thank for his decent showing in the final, 11th from the juries but 17th from the public left Roberto in a respectable 12th place. Georgia still weren’t winning the public over, who ditched them in a painful 23rd place, leaving the juries to pick up the pieces with a 13th place recovering them to 15th.

The televote instead loved Romania, with a 7th place ranking. The juries still hated it though, and they placed Cezar 24th of 26, costing them a top 10 finish. Curiously the juries saved Armenia from not qualifying from Semi 2, but the public vote picked up for the final, placing it 15th vs the juries’ 18th. That said, Armenia’s average rank was better with juries than the public’s, evidence of the wild inconsistency between national televotes.

edsm spain contigo hasta el final eurovisionSo what about the bottom of the barrel? Well Spain had a comprehensive disaster, finishing last on the jury & televote lists. However, they evidently managed to squeeze a few big hits in a few countries, enough to get enough points to defeat Ireland into last place.

Ireland were popular. Sort of. It’s just they were consistently sort-of-popular in a lot of places’ televotes, but rarely enough to overcome jury apathy to end up in national top 10s. A statistical quirk, but just remember they still qualified so it wasn’t LAST last.

Lithuania’s strong televote saved them from elimination in their semi-final, but that evaporated in the final, with it ending as one of only two (the other Spain) to finish outside the top 20 on both ranks. Finland weren’t far behind, mirroring their ropey results from their semi-final.

amandine bourgeois france l'enfer et moi eurovisionFinally, spare a thought for poor France, having a bit of deja vu, as Amandine did really well with the juries (12th) but were televote poison (25th) in an almost exact re-run of Anggun’s disasterous 2012. Still, only second-last on the televote this year, progress?

Well that’s about it. A massive stats blowout, but I feel better for it. There will always be ups and downs, it just shows more than ever that you really can’t predict Eurovision a lot of the time!

All that’s left to do is count down my top 39 of the year, and that’s about it… thanks for reading! xoxox

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Filed under Eurovision, Malmö 2013, Music, Reviews

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